What countries will population explode in the coming years?

There weren’t many people on Earth. In 70 years, the world population has already more than tripled: from 2.6 billion people in 1950, it rose to 7.753 billion in 2020. And the dynamic is not ready to stop soon, since next November 15, according to estimates by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs According to the United Nations published on Monday, July 11, the blue planet will welcome its eight billion inhabitants.

Still, these staggering stats impose some nuances. According to the United Nations administration, this staggering growth is, in fact, largely due to eight countries in which more than half of the projected world population will be concentrated.

What are these countries? How do we explain this dynamic? We are evaluating.

Quantum leap

It took hundreds of thousands of years for the world’s population to reach one billion, but it only took 200 years for it to multiply sevenfold. Its cruising speed was 9.7 billion people in 2050, and its peak reached about 10.4 billion people in 2080.

But beware, behind these general numbers, there really are divergent dynamics hidden. As the United Nations explained in its report, a net decline in fertility was observed in many of the so-called developed countries. today, “Two thirds of the world’s population lives in a country or region with lifetime fertility rates below 2.1 births per woman, which is the level required for nearly zero long-term growth for a low-income population. Mortality rate”.

In fact, as the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs explains, this is Sub-Saharan Africa expected to contribute more than half of the projected increase through 2050.

Altogether, they are eight countries to concentrate more than half of the world’s population projected in the coming decades. These are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.

In 2023, India is expected to overtake China as the most populous country in the world. In 2050, the number of Indians will reach 1.668 billion, and the Chinese will reach 1.317 billion.

“This event will occur four years ahead of schedule in the previous UN statistical handover, due to a slight upward correction in Indian momentum and a downward revision, and stunning fertility estimates in China.”where the number of children per woman is only 1.18, according to the scientist which also explains it “Crossing the Indian and Chinese curves will bring disruption and paradigm shift in this part of the world.”.

many factors

The United Nations also noted in its report that during the period 2000-2020, “48 countries or regions have grown at least twice as fast, including 33 countries or regions in Africa and 12 in Asia”.

How, then, can this extraordinary dynamism be explained in these regions? For the United Nations, this astounding growth is largely attributable to To increase the number of people of reproductive age Reducing maternal and child mortality rates. In addition to this growth It was associated with a marked change in fertility rates, increased urbanization, and an acceleration of migration..

Moreover, adult age in the developed world “It’s been going on since the mid-20th century, and the number of people reaching the age of 100 has never been higher”. For comparison, overall life expectancy in the early 1990s was 64.8 years, compared to 70 years today.

“These megatrends have serious implications. They have consequences for economic development, employment, income distribution, poverty and social protection. They also affect initiatives to ensure universal access to health care, education, housing, sanitation, water, food and energy”concludes the section of the United Nations, which warns of this “These trends will have important implications for future generations.”.

In this regard, the United Nations calls on countries to invest “in developing its human capital, ensuring access to quality health care and education at all ages and promoting opportunities for productive employment and decent work”.

What countries will population explode in the coming years?

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